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Markets — The New Reality from Claude Data: AI Is Already Doing Substantial Portions of Jobs — Is the Global Economy and Capital Allocation Ready?
📈 MarketsJune 26, 2026

The New Reality from Claude Data: AI Is Already Doing Substantial Portions of Jobs — Is the Global Economy and Capital Allocation Ready?

Anthropic’s latest Economic Index report, released on June 26, 2026, delivers one of the most granular, real-time views yet of how frontier AI is embedding itself into economic activity. Unlike earlier indices that focused primarily on task exposure and adoption curves, the June edition introduces hourly sampling of conversations alongside a linked survey of approximately 9,700 Claude users.

Editor’s Pick7 min

Featured

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Explainer — The AI Anxiety Paradox: Workers Most Fearful of Job Loss Are Upskilling, Demanding Raises and Spending More
📘 ExplainerJuly 2, 2026

The AI Anxiety Paradox: Workers Most Fearful of Job Loss Are Upskilling, Demanding Raises and Spending More

For years, the dominant narrative around artificial intelligence has been one of looming displacement. Headlines have warned of mass job losses, with estimates ranging from Goldman Sachs’ projection of up to 300 million full-time equivalent roles exposed globally to the IMF’s assessment that roughly 40% of jobs worldwide — and 60% in advanced economies — are exposed to AI.

Nakitte Featured7 min

Weekly Briefs by Country

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Kazakhstan — Kazakhstan Advances Japan Investment Deals and Reports Record IT Market
🇰🇿 KazakhstanJuly 13, 2026

Kazakhstan Advances Japan Investment Deals and Reports Record IT Market

The week featured a cluster of positive economic updates on July 10, including record IT services revenue for 2025, nearing $45 billion trade turnover, and progress on a $3.7 billion Japan deal pipeline. Policymakers emphasized improving the investment climate via a new constitution and council meetings. ADB highlighted resilient growth prospects despite global uncertainty, with household incomes rising for the first time in a year.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Spain — Trump Trade Threat Sparks Spanish Equity Selloff Midweek
🇪🇸 SpainJuly 13, 2026

Trump Trade Threat Sparks Spanish Equity Selloff Midweek

President Trump's midweek threat to halt trade with Spain over NATO spending triggered a 2.7% drop in the benchmark stock index, the largest one-day decline in months, and widened Spanish bond spreads versus Germany. The episode overshadowed otherwise steady economic momentum, with services activity rebounding in June and growth forecasts holding near 2.1-2.6% for 2026 despite energy-price pressures from Middle East tensions. Investors focused on the limited direct trade exposure but monitored potential spillover to EU-wide sentiment and fiscal policy.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Italy — Meloni Faces Trump Criticism Ahead of NATO Summit; Italy Tracks Migration, Etna Activity
🇮🇹 ItalyJuly 13, 2026

Meloni Faces Trump Criticism Ahead of NATO Summit; Italy Tracks Migration, Etna Activity

Political tensions with the US dominated the week for Italy, with President Trump publicly criticizing Prime Minister Meloni on July 6 ahead of the NATO summit. Migration flows remained elevated per the July 6 UNHCR update, while Mount Etna's ongoing eruption disrupted flights in Sicily. No major new macroeconomic data releases occurred, leaving investor focus on external geopolitical risks and domestic resilience amid summer heatwaves.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Taiwan — Taiwan Central Bank Chief Warns of AI Bubble Risks Amid Elevated Growth Outlook
🇹🇼 TaiwanJuly 13, 2026

Taiwan Central Bank Chief Warns of AI Bubble Risks Amid Elevated Growth Outlook

Over the past week, Taiwan's central bank highlighted risks from an AI-driven boom while releasing routine June data on foreign reserves and interbank markets. Geopolitical tensions rose after a reported Chinese missile test, prompting coordination with partners. The developments underscore Taiwan's strong export momentum offset by external uncertainties. Investors may monitor central bank communications and cross-strait developments closely.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
South Korea — South Korea advances 24-hour won trading amid financial sector upgrade push
🇰🇷 South KoreaJuly 13, 2026

South Korea advances 24-hour won trading amid financial sector upgrade push

The past week highlighted South Korea's ongoing efforts to modernize its financial markets, including the rollout of 24-hour currency trading. Foreign investor outflows from Korean equities continued amid broader Asian stock selling, while authorities monitored FX volatility linked to geopolitical factors. Economic fundamentals remain supported by semiconductor exports, though policy focus stayed on stability.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Canada — BoC Expected to Hold Rates Steady as Mining Sector Gets Federal Support
🇨🇦 CanadaJuly 13, 2026

BoC Expected to Hold Rates Steady as Mining Sector Gets Federal Support

Over the past week, a Reuters poll indicated economists expect the Bank of Canada to maintain its policy rate through 2026 amid contained inflation risks. Federal funding of $6.7 million was announced for two critical minerals mining projects on July 9. Recent labor data showed modest job gains in June with unemployment easing to 6.5%, supporting views of resilient Q2 growth above 2% annualized. Equity markets remained stable with the TSX trading near 35,300 levels.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Japan — BOJ Issues July Regional Report Amid Early-July Equity Outflow
🇯🇵 JapanJuly 13, 2026

BOJ Issues July Regional Report Amid Early-July Equity Outflow

The past week featured the Bank of Japan's release of its July Regional Economic Report on July 9, showing continued steady conditions across regions following the June rate hike. Foreign investor flows into Japanese equities reversed to a net outflow of ¥22.2 billion in the week ending July 3. Markets remained focused on the upcoming late-July BOJ meeting, with expectations centered on a hold at the current 1% policy rate. Broader sentiment reflected stability in the yen and equities after political developments earlier in the year.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Brazil — Ibovespa Rallies Late Week on Easing Hopes; No New Rate Decision
🇧🇷 BrazilJuly 13, 2026

Ibovespa Rallies Late Week on Easing Hopes; No New Rate Decision

Brazil's equity market posted gains over the past week, with the Ibovespa climbing notably on July 10 amid expectations for further monetary easing. The central bank's prior June cut to 14.25% continues to shape sentiment, while a July 13 Focus Market Readout provided updated guidance. Broader economic data releases remained limited, keeping focus on policy trajectory and external conditions.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Kenya — World Bank cuts Kenya 2026 growth forecast to 4.3% on global shocks
🇰🇪 KenyaJuly 13, 2026

World Bank cuts Kenya 2026 growth forecast to 4.3% on global shocks

The World Bank revised Kenya's 2026 GDP growth projection down to 4.3% from 4.9% in its Kenya Economic Update released midweek, citing heightened geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices from Middle East conflicts. The downgrade reflects risks to private investment, production costs, and remittance inflows. Kenya's central bank maintained its policy rate at 8.75% in June, with inflation at 6.41% in the latest reading. Investors should monitor how these external pressures interact with domestic policy stability.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
South Africa — South Africa private sector PMI returns to growth in June amid easing inflation
🇿🇦 South AfricaJuly 13, 2026

South Africa private sector PMI returns to growth in June amid easing inflation

The S&P Global PMI rose to 50.5 in June, signaling a return to private sector expansion driven by easing inflation and modest gains in output and orders. The rand traded near 16.24-16.25 versus the dollar early in the week before softening slightly after a decline in net foreign reserves. SARB highlighted robust financial system stability despite global uncertainties, with the next MPC decision scheduled for July 23.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Iran — US Reimposes Sanctions on Iranian Oil Sales After Strait Attacks
🇮🇷 IranJuly 13, 2026

US Reimposes Sanctions on Iranian Oil Sales After Strait Attacks

The past week was dominated by the US decision on July 7 to reinstate sanctions on Iranian oil exports following attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, shortening a temporary wind-down period to July 17. This reversed a June waiver that had allowed limited sales until August 21 as part of fragile US-Iran talks. Oil prices rose more than 5% on the news amid ongoing uncertainty over the truce and potential reopening of the strait. Iran's economy, already contracting, faces renewed pressure on its key revenue source.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
India — Indian Markets Volatile on Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Spike
🇮🇳 IndiaJuly 13, 2026

Indian Markets Volatile on Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Spike

Indian equity benchmarks experienced heightened volatility over the past week amid escalating US-Iran tensions that drove oil prices higher. The Nifty 50 and Sensex posted their largest single-day declines in three months on July 8 before partial recovery. Focus shifted to the start of Q1 earnings season and upcoming CPI data as investors assessed external risks against domestic resilience.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Sweden — Sweden tightens asylum rules as NATO selects Saab GlobalEye systems
🇸🇪 SwedenJuly 13, 2026

Sweden tightens asylum rules as NATO selects Saab GlobalEye systems

Over the past week, Sweden implemented major migration policy changes effective July 12-13, restricting asylum to temporary permits and introducing reporting requirements. Midweek, NATO announced selection of Saab's GlobalEye for its AWACS fleet, potentially worth billions. The Riksbank maintained its 1.75% policy rate from its prior June decision amid inflation risks. These developments highlight shifts in labor policy and defense sector momentum.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Netherlands — Netherlands June Inflation Eases to 2.9% Following July 1 Wage Adjustments
🇳🇱 NetherlandsJuly 13, 2026

Netherlands June Inflation Eases to 2.9% Following July 1 Wage Adjustments

Dutch inflation moderated to 2.9% year-on-year in June, down from 3.5% in May, with the final reading released midweek. The moderation occurred against the backdrop of minimum wage and pension increases effective July 1 and the ECB's June rate hike. Broader growth forecasts for 2026 remain subdued around 1%, with fiscal pressures mounting. Investors may monitor inflation persistence and euro-area policy spillovers.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Russia — Russian equities extend 17-week decline, hitting 2022 lows
🇷🇺 RussiaJuly 13, 2026

Russian equities extend 17-week decline, hitting 2022 lows

Over the past week, Russia's MOEX index continued its steep slide, reaching levels last seen in late 2022 amid persistent economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict and domestic challenges. The market posted further losses of around 3% since early July, extending a broader summer downturn of 16%. No major new policy announcements emerged, with the next central bank rate decision scheduled for July 24. Investors are monitoring the trajectory of inflation moderation and potential further easing.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
China — Shanghai Composite Drops 2% Amid US-Iran Tensions
🇨🇳 ChinaJuly 13, 2026

Shanghai Composite Drops 2% Amid US-Iran Tensions

Chinese equities declined over the past week, with the Shanghai Composite falling sharply on July 13 amid escalating US-Iran tensions and concerns over energy supply routes. Domestic data releases were limited, though CPI and PPI figures appeared midweek and Q2 GDP is scheduled for release shortly. Markets reflected broader global risk-off sentiment tied to Middle East developments, while authorities emphasized energy security.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Türkiye — IMF cuts Turkey 2026 growth forecast to 2.9% on July 8
🇹🇷 TürkiyeJuly 13, 2026

IMF cuts Turkey 2026 growth forecast to 2.9% on July 8

The past week featured the IMF's second downward revision to Turkey's 2026 growth outlook and the central bank's signal that it awaits July inflation data and clarity on regional conflicts before considering further easing. Equity markets showed mixed daily moves with the BIST 100 fluctuating near 14,000-14,300 levels. A bilateral meeting between Presidents Trump and Erdogan occurred early in the week. These developments underscore ongoing caution in monetary policy amid external uncertainties.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
France — Banque de France July 9 releases highlight sustainable finance push and Eurosystem statement
🇫🇷 FranceJuly 13, 2026

Banque de France July 9 releases highlight sustainable finance push and Eurosystem statement

The past week featured Banque de France announcements on July 9 advancing nature-positive finance partnerships and releasing the Eurosystem consolidated statement as of July 3. No major policy rate decisions or economic data prints occurred in the period. Broader euro area inflation projections from the June ECB meeting provided context for steady policy expectations.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Germany — German June Inflation Eases to 2.3%, Reinforcing ECB Pause Expectations
🇩🇪 GermanyJuly 13, 2026

German June Inflation Eases to 2.3%, Reinforcing ECB Pause Expectations

Germany's final June inflation reading came in at 2.3% year-over-year on July 10, down from 2.6% in May and aligning with preliminary estimates. The print, driven by easing energy pressures, strengthened market views that the ECB will hold rates at its late-July meeting. Equity markets showed resilience mid-week amid the data and steady corporate earnings. Broader fiscal reform discussions continued to provide context for medium-term growth prospects.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
United Kingdom — Bank of England publishes July 2026 Financial Stability Report
🇬🇧 United KingdomJuly 13, 2026

Bank of England publishes July 2026 Financial Stability Report

The Bank of England released its July Financial Stability Report on July 7, assessing the UK financial system as resilient amid Middle East-related volatility while noting heightened vulnerabilities in equity leverage, private credit, and AI-driven operational risks. Inflation data for May showed CPI at 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged, with the next reading due later in July. No major policy or data surprises occurred mid-week, leaving markets focused on the upcoming July 30 MPC meeting.

AI Weekly Brief3 min

Important Events This Week

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  • Tue, Jul 14

    Consumer Price Index (June)

    United States · Inflation

  • Wed, Jul 15

    Producer Price Index (June)

    United States · Inflation

  • Thu, Jul 16

    Advance Retail Sales (June)

    United States · Activity

  • Fri, Jul 17

    U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes (June)

    United States · Inflation

Madrid — IBEX 35 — IBEX 35 Falls Over 2% in Week of July 6-10 Amid Geopolitical News
🇪🇸 MadridJuly 13, 2026

IBEX 35 Falls Over 2% in Week of July 6-10 Amid Geopolitical News

The IBEX 35 declined approximately 2.4% over the full trading week ending July 10, 2026, closing at 19,384.70 after a volatile path that included a sharp midweek drop. The index opened the week lower, fell more than 2.7% on July 8 following comments from U.S. President Trump and Middle East tensions, then partially recovered with gains on July 9 and 10. Broader European markets also faced pressure from shifting rate expectations.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Taipei — TAIEX — TAIEX Declines 3.05% in Typhoon-Shortened Week
🇹🇼 TaipeiJuly 13, 2026

TAIEX Declines 3.05% in Typhoon-Shortened Week

The TAIEX fell approximately 3.05% over the trading sessions from July 6-9, 2026, after reaching a record high early in the period before retreating on profit-taking. A sharp selloff in technology shares and heavy foreign investor outflows drove the decline, with the market closed on July 10 due to Typhoon Bavi. The index ended the abbreviated week lower amid broad-based pressure on electronics names.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Mexico City — S&P/BMV IPC — S&P/BMV IPC Ends Week of July 6-10 at 66,496, Down Modestly from Prior Close
🇲🇽 Mexico CityJuly 13, 2026

S&P/BMV IPC Ends Week of July 6-10 at 66,496, Down Modestly from Prior Close

The S&P/BMV IPC closed the trading week at 66,496.10 after a 0.59% gain on July 10, reflecting a net decline from the prior Friday's 67,060.49 level amid mixed daily sessions. Cooling inflation data supported financials and miners, while the peso firmed. The index remained above the 66,000 level for several sessions but sat 7.1% below its 52-week high. Monthly performance showed a 0.72% decline, though the index was still up 17.5% year-over-year.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Riyadh — Tadawul All Share (TASI) — TASI ends week near flat amid mixed sessions in early July 2026
🇸🇦 RiyadhJuly 13, 2026

TASI ends week near flat amid mixed sessions in early July 2026

The Tadawul All Share Index posted a modest net decline of about 0.5% over the five trading days through July 12, 2026, after rising early in the week before giving back gains. The index moved from a July 6 close of 10,813 to 10,823 on July 12, with limited volatility and thin catalysts. Broader market context included stable but range-bound oil prices near $70-72 per barrel and ongoing effects from the February opening to all foreign investors.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Seoul — KOSPI — KOSPI falls sharply in volatile week amid chip stock swings
🇰🇷 SeoulJuly 13, 2026

KOSPI falls sharply in volatile week amid chip stock swings

The KOSPI declined over the trading week ending July 10, 2026, closing at 7,475.94 after a midweek plunge that took it more than 20% below its June peak near 9,385 and into bear market territory. Sharp drops in semiconductor names on AI-related concerns drove the move, with a partial rebound by Friday. The index had been among the world's strongest performers earlier in 2026 before the correction accelerated.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Lagos — NGX All-Share — NGX All-Share Gains 6.35% in Week to July 10, 2026
🇳🇬 LagosJuly 13, 2026

NGX All-Share Gains 6.35% in Week to July 10, 2026

The NGX All-Share Index rose 6.35% over the full trading week ended July 10, advancing from 229,240.34 points on July 3 to close near 243,800 points. Daily gains were recorded across all five sessions, with the largest advances on July 6 (+2.15%), July 8 (+2.27%), and July 7 (+1.24%). Market capitalization increased by approximately N9.34 trillion to N156.44 trillion, lifting the year-to-date return to 56.67%.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Tehran — TEDPIX — TEDPIX Data Limited for Week to July 10 as Regional Tensions Persist
🇮🇷 TehranJuly 13, 2026

TEDPIX Data Limited for Week to July 10 as Regional Tensions Persist

Public sources provide no confirmed daily closes or net weekly change for TEDPIX in the trading week ending July 10, 2026. The index stood near 3.65 million in late February after earlier volatility and a May reopening following an 80-day closure. June saw a reported surge toward 5.1 million on diplomatic developments, but subsequent U.S.-Iran hostilities have introduced uncertainty. Investors may monitor official TSE releases for updates on flows and breadth.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Singapore — Straits Times Index — Straits Times Index surges to record 5,469.29 in week to July 10
🇸🇬 SingaporeJuly 13, 2026

Straits Times Index surges to record 5,469.29 in week to July 10

The Straits Times Index rose sharply over the full trading week ending July 10, 2026, closing at a fresh all-time high of 5,469.29 after advancing approximately 4.2 percent. Gains built steadily across sessions amid strength in financials, technology, and select industrials, supported by Wall Street momentum and local blue-chip buying. The advance marked the second consecutive weekly gain as investors positioned ahead of upcoming economic data.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Hong Kong — Hang Seng — Hang Seng Index posts best week in over eight months to July 10
🇭🇰 Hong KongJuly 13, 2026

Hang Seng Index posts best week in over eight months to July 10

The Hang Seng Index advanced over the trading week ended July 10, 2026, closing at 24,175 after a 0.60% gain on the final session. The move marked the strongest weekly performance in more than eight months amid improving sentiment toward Chinese technology and internet shares. Gains occurred despite mixed daily sessions and ongoing geopolitical monitoring. Technology names and select financials provided the primary lift.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
BIST — BIST 100 — BIST 100 Closes Modestly Lower in Volatile Week of July 6-10
🇹🇷 BISTJuly 13, 2026

BIST 100 Closes Modestly Lower in Volatile Week of July 6-10

The BIST 100 index declined about 0.7% over the full trading week ending July 10, 2026, closing at 14,321 after fluctuating between session highs near 14,497 and lows around 14,105. Daily moves included gains early in the week followed by sharper losses midweek and a strong rebound on the final session. Broader context included mixed global equity performance and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

AI Weekly Brief2 min

Briefs by Theme

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Nuclear — Uranium Spot Prices Hold Near $85/lb as Supply Tightens and Deals Advance
☢️ NuclearJuly 13, 2026

Uranium Spot Prices Hold Near $85/lb as Supply Tightens and Deals Advance

Over the week ending July 13, 2026, uranium spot prices remained stable around $85 per pound amid reports of tighter supply from major producers and continued policy support for nuclear expansion. Key moves included a U.S. DOE contract for HALEU production, rising domestic output data, and new international fuel supply and export agreements. Long-term contract prices stayed elevated near multi-year highs, reflecting structural demand growth from power needs and reactor builds.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Real Estate & REITs — REITs Show Resilience as Global Real Estate Investment Volumes Recover
🏙️ Real Estate & REITsJuly 13, 2026

REITs Show Resilience as Global Real Estate Investment Volumes Recover

Global real estate and REITs sustained positive momentum through the week ending July 13, 2026, building on mid-year outperformance and recovering transaction activity. REIT total returns reached 14.9% at mid-year, ahead of broad equities despite elevated rates. Institutional interest remains selective amid competition from other asset classes, with capital flows showing regional gains in North America and APAC. Investors may monitor sector-specific fundamentals and cross-border allocation shifts.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Defense & Aerospace — NATO Summit, Missile Contracts Drive Defense Activity in Early July
🛡️ Defense & AerospaceJuly 13, 2026

NATO Summit, Missile Contracts Drive Defense Activity in Early July

The week of July 6-13, 2026, featured NATO summit discussions in Ankara on spending and alliances alongside major U.S. defense contracts and European missile initiatives. Key moves included PAC-3 maintenance facility plans and aircraft deliveries amid ongoing global spending growth. Investors may monitor sustained procurement and industrial cooperation trends across borders.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
AI & Semiconductors — AI Chip Stocks Show Volatility Amid Strong Demand in Early July 2026
🤖 AI & SemiconductorsJuly 13, 2026

AI Chip Stocks Show Volatility Amid Strong Demand in Early July 2026

Chip equities experienced a mid-week selloff after an early rally, driven by sector rotation rather than shifts in fundamentals. NVIDIA maintained its leading position in AI accelerators while AMD gained ground with its MI300 series and TSMC reported robust revenue growth from advanced nodes. Memory suppliers noted tight supply conditions supporting pricing. Investors may monitor these dynamics for implications on global semiconductor supply chains and capital allocation across the sector.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Pharma & Biotech — Pharma & Biotech: M&A Accelerates, Layoffs and Funding Mark H1 Close
💊 Pharma & BiotechJuly 13, 2026

Pharma & Biotech: M&A Accelerates, Layoffs and Funding Mark H1 Close

The week of July 6-13, 2026, saw continued M&A momentum with Novartis and Incyte deals, alongside Genentech layoffs and a Bayer equity infusion. Biosimilar adoption gained traction amid patent expirations, while regulatory actions included an FDA rejection and ARPA-H gene-editing funding. The sector closed H1 at a five-year high supported by deal flow and clinical progress.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Rates & Bonds — US Treasury Yields End Week Higher at 4.59% Amid Geopolitical and Data Focus
📉 Rates & BondsJuly 13, 2026

US Treasury Yields End Week Higher at 4.59% Amid Geopolitical and Data Focus

US Treasury yields fluctuated during the week to July 13, 2026, with the 10-year note closing near 4.59% after dipping mid-week on economic data and tensions before rebounding. The 2-year yield traded around 4.2% levels, reflecting steady expectations for limited near-term Fed policy shifts. Bond markets showed resilience to war-related inflation concerns, with strategists maintaining forecasts for modest yield declines over coming months.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
FX & Currencies — Dollar Mixed as Yen Weakens, Sterling Hits Highs Amid Geopolitics
💱 FX & CurrenciesJuly 13, 2026

Dollar Mixed as Yen Weakens, Sterling Hits Highs Amid Geopolitics

The US dollar traded in a narrow range against major currencies during the week to July 13, 2026, with the yen extending losses toward multi-decade lows and sterling climbing to a one-month high versus the dollar. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices and shifting rate expectations drove moves across the period. Capital flow signals from Japan and emerging markets added context to positioning.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Precious Metals — Precious Metals See Mid-Week Pullback After Early July Gains
🥇 Precious MetalsJuly 13, 2026

Precious Metals See Mid-Week Pullback After Early July Gains

Precious metals prices retreated from early-week highs through July 13, with gold falling from above $4,180 to around $4,070 and silver declining from near $63 to about $58.50 per ounce. Central bank gold purchases continued steadily, while platinum held relatively firm and palladium showed modest resilience. The week highlighted ongoing volatility amid broader market adjustments following 2025-early 2026 rallies.

AI Weekly Brief2 min
Geopolitics — US-Iran tensions flare over Strait of Hormuz amid fragile ceasefire
🌍 GeopoliticsJuly 13, 2026

US-Iran tensions flare over Strait of Hormuz amid fragile ceasefire

Escalation in the Middle East dominated geopolitics in the week to July 13, 2026, as Iran targeted commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US strikes and a temporary collapse of the June ceasefire. Mediators worked to revive talks by mid-week while fighting paused. Parallel developments included intensified Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel logistics in the Sea of Azov and ongoing EU preparations for trade defense measures against China. These events underscored persistent multipolar frictions affecting energy routes and defense postures.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Energy — Energy Markets Navigate Oil Volatility and Renewables Growth in Week to July 13 2026
🛢️ EnergyJuly 13, 2026

Energy Markets Navigate Oil Volatility and Renewables Growth in Week to July 13 2026

Oil prices fluctuated with geopolitical supply concerns driving mid-week gains before partial easing, while forecasts highlighted downward pressure from rising inventories and moderating demand. Natural gas remained range-bound amid adequate supplies. Renewables sustained momentum as the leading source of energy supply growth. Investors may monitor these cross-border dynamics for implications across equities, commodities, and related flows.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Macro — IMF July 2026 WEO Update Highlights Stalled Disinflation and Uneven Growth
🌐 MacroJuly 13, 2026

IMF July 2026 WEO Update Highlights Stalled Disinflation and Uneven Growth

The IMF's mid-week World Economic Outlook Update projected global growth at 3.0% for 2026, unchanged cumulatively from April, while revising headline inflation upward to 4.7% due to Middle East conflict effects on energy prices. AI-driven tech demand provided an offset for integrated economies, but disinflation stalled broadly. Central banks maintained or signaled tighter stances amid persistent pressures, with no major policy shifts during the week itself.

AI Weekly Brief3 min
Working PaperJuly 14, 2026

Supply and Demand with Market Heterogeneity -- by Ingvil Gaarder, Lancelot Henry de Frahan, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky, Oscar Volpe

We revisit the classic identification problem of separating supply and demand for a homogeneous good using data from multiple markets. We allow markets to be heterogeneous according to unobservables, a feature that arises if there are unobservable differences in consumer preferences or firm technology. We develop a new identification analysis based on hypothetical market types. We use this analysis to show how nonparametric, economically motivated assumptions carry empirical restrictions for ...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJuly 14, 2026

Women in the Platform Economy: Descriptive Evidence from Drivers in India and Indonesia -- by Achyuta Adhvaryu, Levina Adiputri, Valentina Brailovskaya, Priyanka Dua, Jenny Susan John, Pratibha Joshi, Terry Muthahhari, Rivandra Royono, Jack Thunde

We provide descriptive evidence on women's experiences in platform-based driving and delivery work using survey and administrative data from India and Indonesia. Partnering with major two-wheeler platforms, we study representative samples of drivers, oversampling women to examine gender differences (India: 404 women, 2,153 men; Indonesia: 892 women, 2,114 men). Female participation is extremely low -- 0.8% in India and 1.5% in Indonesia -- consistent with barriers related to safety concerns, ...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJuly 14, 2026

What Do Asset Prices in April 2025 Say About Demand for the Dollar? -- by Rohan Kekre, Moritz Lenel

We interpret exchange rate and yield curve responses to the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement through the lens of an equilibrium model capturing the portfolio balance mechanism. Disciplined by price elasticities from QE announcements, a 3-12% decline in the demand for dollar bonds (relative to annual U.S. GDP) accounts for the dollar depreciation and rise in dollar yields during this episode. News of a gradual rebalancing out of dollar bonds is consistent with immediate price impact sinc...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJuly 14, 2026

Social Insurance with Imperfect Eligibility Screening: Theory and Evidence from Pandemic UI -- by Adam Isen, Elira Kuka, Bryan A. Stuart

This paper studies social insurance with imperfect eligibility screening, focusing on Unemployment Insurance (UI) during its expansion in 2020 and 2021. We study the extent of imperfect screening by identifying anomalous payments using administrative tax data and UI policies, finding $214 billion in potentially-improper payments—concentrated in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program—with approximately half detectable ex-ante through improved federal-state data sharing. There is su...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJuly 14, 2026

Long Term Care and Cognitive Impairment in Spain -- by Joan Costa-i-Font, Sergi Jimenez-Martin, Juan Oliva, Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, Analía Viola

The growing prevalence of cognitive impairment (CI) is one of the main drivers of age-related demand for health and long-term care (LTC). In Spain, CI is estimated to affect 18.5% of Spaniards over 65, and 45.3% in those aged 85 and above. This paper draws on a pooled pre-COVID data from a longitudinal sample of individuals aged 65+ to examine the effect of CI and physical limitations on health and long-term care utilisation, estimates its costs, and financial burden. We report four sets of f...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperJuly 14, 2026

Mind the KF* Gap: EME Vulnerabilities to Global Shocks -- by John D. Burger, Francis E. Warnock, Veronica Cacdac Warnock

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have historically been vulnerable to external shocks. Recently the global economy has experienced several major shocks yet EMEs have been remarkably resilient. Some of this improved performance can be attributed to prudent policies and stronger economic fundamentals, but the existing literature points to an overperformance mystery by some EMEs with weaker fundamentals. We evaluate an alternative measure of vulnerability based on the concept of a natural level ...

NBER1 min read