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Working PaperMay 28, 2026

The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps -- by Dean Karlan, Amol Singh Raswan, Christopher R. Udry

Much of development economics, both micro and macro, posits theories and explores the empirics of poverty traps. A common theory centers around asset-threshold poverty traps in which marginal returns to capital increase sharply over a certain threshold and financial markets are incomplete. This combination leads households above this threshold to prosper while those below continuously fall back, trapped in poverty. Yet in economics, as best as we can tell, far more papers assume such threshol...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperMay 28, 2026

Distribution Costs -- by Cian Ruane, Alessandra Peter

We provide the first direct estimates of distribution expenses incurred by manufacturing plants and quantify their importance for aggregate consumption and measured misallocation. Using a novel measure from the Indian Annual Survey of Industries, we document three facts: distribution expenses amount to over half of labor costs, are over three times larger as a share of sales for plants in the largest decile relative to the smallest, and declined by one third from 2000 to 2010. We develop a mo...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperMay 28, 2026

The Word Is Not Enough: Testing the Effects of Information Treatments on Perceived Corruption in Ukraine -- by Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Ilona Sologoub, Yuriy Fedyk

Using a representative sample of more than 7,000 Ukrainians, we study how information treatments affect corruption perceptions and prosocial behavior. We document a large gap between perceived and experienced corruption: while most respondents view corruption as widespread and a major national problem, far fewer report direct exposure. Through a randomized controlled trial, we find that informing citizens about successful prosecutions raises perceived government willingness to fight corruptio...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperMay 28, 2026

Nonresponse Imputations and Related Measurement Issues in the CPI for Shelter -- by Lara Loewenstein, Hugh G. Montag, Randal Verbrugge

Shelter is the largest component of US consumer price index (CPI) inflation; therefore, the accuracy of shelter inflation is critical for the accuracy of overall CPI inflation. Nonresponse in the BLS Housing Survey, which underpins the measurement of CPI shelter inflation, has increased since 2000 and now represents roughly 40 percent of total observations. Missing rent data are currently imputed using a class-mean approach based on rent tier, potentially resulting in biased imputations, as w...

NBER1 min read
Working PaperMay 28, 2026

The Price of Protection: Tariff Incidence and Import Collapse under the Infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff -- by Kris James Mitchener, Mathieu Pedemonte

Using newly digitized monthly data on the quantities and prices of imports as well as product-level data on tariff rates, we estimate that in the first year after the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, imports facing rate increases fell swiftly and dramatically relative to imports not affected by tariffs: for a one-percentage-point increase in the tariff rate, they declined by an average of 4%. We also estimate that the incidence of Smoot-Hawley was almost entirely borne by U.S. importer...

NBER1 min read

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