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Nakitte

Institutional research & analysis

Source: ECB

CENTRAL BANK

Working PaperMay 7, 2026

Gas market shocks: tracing the effect on euro area inflation expectations

This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations. We find that, although conceptually distinct, pipeline and liquefi...

ECB1 min read
Working PaperMay 7, 2026

European temporary migration in a two country DSGE model

Free movement of labour across borders can influence business cycle dynamics in the affected countries. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of temporary migration using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to represent the “old” EU Member States (EU15) and the “new” Member States (NMS12). The model introduces fully endogenous temporary migration and combines it with search-and-matching frictions in labour markets. Workers migrate temporarily in r...

ECB1 min read