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Institutional research & analysis

Source: VoxEU

RESEARCH

Research ColumnMay 7, 2026

Immigration and Integration in Europe

More than one in eight people living in the EU today was born in another country. In fourteen of the bloc's largest economies, it is closer to one in six. For ten years, the same team of researchers has asked what happens to those people next: do they find work, close the gap with their native-born neighbours, and build a settled life? The tenth Migration Observatory report is about to be published, and the decade-long picture it paints is not what the political debate might lead you to expec...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 7, 2026

Why ‘de-risking’ may not deliver a large peace dividend

Many governments have recently renewed their interest in de-risking – a policy of limiting trade to reduce economic coercion. This column aruges that this policy neglects the security benefits of trade. The authors estimate that a doubling of bilateral trade reduces the probability of militarised conflict by roughly 30%, demonstrating a causal ‘peace dividend’ of international trade. Efforts to reduce reliance on global supply chains should consider how they may also heighten the chances of c...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 6, 2026

When AI meets local debt

Recent evidence for the US finds that higher AI job postings reduce municipal bond yields, particularly for longer-maturity and lower-rated bonds. This column shows that in five non-US OECD countries, expansions in AI job intensity are associated with higher bond yields. This suggests that bond markets are pricing the transition to an AI economy – with risks, timing, and institutional context – rather than its long-term potential. Policies to narrow the gap between the US and other OECD count...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 6, 2026

A way out via the Strait of Hormuz

For decades, US-Iran nuclear negotiations have been trapped by two problems: time inconsistency, since the US can always reimpose sanctions after Iran gives up its stock of uranium and associated hardware; and political debt overhang, the accumulation of past promises to core constituencies that make any narrow deal insufficient. This column describes how the twin blockades of the Strait of Hormuz may have unexpectedly changed this dynamic. By giving both sides more symmetric leverage, the bl...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 5, 2026

Understanding the rise in CEO age

The composition of Western workforces has shifted toward older workers, and this trend is particularly strong at the very top of business organisations. This column uses newly assembled data spanning a wide range of firms to document that average CEO age at appointment has risen sharply over recent decades. This increase is concentrated outside of large, listed firms and driven by longer, more diverse career paths prior to appointment. Demographics, schooling, and tenure cannot explain these ...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 4, 2026

The use and misuse of R&D subsidies and tax credits

R&D subsidies and tax credits are widely used around the world to encourage private sector R&D by reducing its cost for firms. This column argues that these policy tools have meaningful differences that should be considered in innovation policy and by those conducting research on the topic. R&D tax credits are a rule-based registration system whereas R&D subsidies are a discretionary examination system. R&D tax credit policy can be made more effective by ensuring sufficient uptake and removin...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 3, 2026

Quantifying the impact of the Iran war on US inflation

The outbreak of the Iran war in February 2026 has led to a major disruption to oil trade and a surge in oil prices. This column assesses the inflationary impact of the oil price fluctuations caused by the war. Even under a cautiously optimistic scenario in which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for one quarter, after which oil exports resume gradually, the surge in oil prices is expected to raise US headline inflation by 0.6 percentage points and core inflation by 0.2 percentage poin...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 3, 2026

How countercyclical capital buffers travel: Internal capital markets and domestic borrowing

Macroprudential capital buffers are designed to make banking systems safer. This column shows that, at the bank–firm level, they do. But multinational firms respond: when a host country raises its countercyclical capital buffer, parent companies in Germany step in and fully replace the lost funding through internal loans. Parents refinance this support by borrowing more at home — raising their own leverage and default risk. Under full reciprocity in banking regulation, the internal capital ma...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 2, 2026

Connecting job seekers with buddies online

Supporting job seekers looking to change career has become particularly important as economies try to adjust to the digital and green transitions. This column reports on an experiment connecting job seekers in occupations with poor employment prospects with volunteer ‘buddies’ who have recently exited unemployment and found jobs in new occupations. The findings suggest that such a programme can meaningfully improve employment and earnings outcomes, especially for those who need help most.

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnMay 1, 2026

The macroeconomic consequences of undermining central bank independence: Evidence from governor transitions

In recent years, several high-profile episodes have renewed concerns about central bank independence in practice. This column constructs a new cross-country dataset of central bank governor transitions to study the macroeconomic effects of politically motivated transitions. It finds that political pressure on central banks achieves lower rates and a short-run boost to economic growth. But over time, inflation rises and central bank credibility declines, especially if the incoming governor fol...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnApril 30, 2026

The Right to Choose to Die

Content note: this episode discusses assisted dying, end-of-life choices, and suicide. Some listeners may find the content distressing. In April 2024, Daniel Kahneman — one of the most influential psychologists of the twentieth century — emailed his close friends to say goodbye. He was 90 years old, his kidneys were failing, his mental lapses were increasing, and he had decided it was time to go. He flew to Switzerland to end his life at an assisted dying clinic there, because New York, where...

VoxEU1 min read
Research ColumnApril 30, 2026

The effects of geopolitical supply chain shocks on policy preferences of firms

Do geopolitical shocks to supply chains make firms retreat from globalisation? Using new survey data from 1,855 manufacturing firms in Japan, this column shows that firms support diplomatic solutions regardless of whether supply chain disruptions originate from an ally or a non-ally country. Geopolitical shocks are associated with lower support for diversification subsidies, compared to shocks stemming from natural disasters. Overall, it finds support for the commercial peace conjecture that ...

VoxEU1 min read